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For nearly a decade the Las Vegas Raiders have chased stability under center. After rolling through Derek Carr, Jimmy Garoppolo, Kenny Pickett, Gardner Minshew and a short‐lived Geno Smith experiment, the team finally used the No. 1 pick in the 2026 NFL Draft to select Fernando Mendoza. Before the draft the Raiders agreed to a fully guaranteed $20 million deal with veteran Kirk Cousins that can reach $172 million over five years. Head coach Klint Kubiak wants Cousins to start early and let the rookie sit and learn, but the presence of a 37‑year‑old stopgap and the fanbase’s impatience make this one of the most fascinating quarterback rooms in the league.
This piece dives into what Mendoza brings, why Geno Smith flamed out, how Cousins and the coaching staff plan to bridge the gap, and what offensive changes can jump‑start a unit that ranked dead last in efficiency last season. As general manager John Spytek explained moments after the pick, the Raiders view Mendoza as “a great person” who is “about being accountable to the whole organization”. The front office believes the No. 1 pick’s work ethic and humility will elevate the entire locker room.
Last season’s offensive collapse: numbers and context
The 2025 Raiders offense under head coach Pete Carroll and offensive coordinator Chip Kelly was historically ineffective. SumerSports’ advanced team dashboard shows Las Vegas finished last (32nd) in offensive expected points added per play (EPA/play –0.21), second worst in both passing (EPA/pass –0.19) and rushing (EPA/rush –0.26) and 32nd in success rate (37.3 %). Their sack rate of 10.65 % was the league’s highest and the unit threw interceptions on 3.16 % of attempts, both by‑products of inconsistent protection and questionable play calling.
A Silver and Black Pride report noted that Geno Smith amassed 736 garbage‑time yards, nearly 25 % of his season total, underscoring how his numbers were inflated by blowouts. Another piece from Sports Illustrated observed that Smith was “near the top of the league in interceptions,” struggled to find star tight end Brock Bowers due to tight coverage and rarely had time to throw, leaving him “playing with a hand tied behind his back”.
Table 1 – Raiders offensive efficiency in 2025
Metric | Value | Rank (NFL) |
|---|---|---|
EPA per play | –0.21 | 32nd |
EPA per pass | –0.19 | 31st |
EPA per rush | –0.26 | 32nd |
Success rate | 37.3 % | 32nd |
Pass yards | 3,315 | 30th |
Completion percentage | 66.0 % | 23rd |
Pass TD | 20 | 29th |
Rush yards | 1,317 | 31st |
Rush TD | 5 | 31st |
Avg. depth of target (ADoT) | 6.49 yds | 31st |
Sack rate | 10.65 % | 32nd |
Interception rate | 3.16 % | 30th |
Source: SumerSports advanced team stats 2025
These numbers reveal a roster and scheme that could not protect the quarterback or sustain drives. Injuries along the offensive line forced musical chairs at tackle and guard, while the playbook asked Smith to operate long‑developing dropback concepts without a run game to keep defenses honest. Chip Kelly’s offense lacked the heavy play‑action and boot game that Kirk Cousins excelled in during his time with the Vikings. Meanwhile, the Raiders’ run game produced only five rushing touchdowns and rarely forced defenses into single‑high looks.
Why Geno Smith failed—and how the scheme contributed
Film study shows Smith’s struggles were a mix of his own decision‑making and systemic issues:
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Protection and pocket structure: The Raiders led the league in sack rate. On early downs the offense often used empty or five‑man protections, leaving Smith to handle pressure without a hot read. When the offensive line did hold up, Smith occasionally drifted unnecessarily and held the ball, contributing to his own pressure.
Turnovers and risk management: Smith threw 17 interceptions in 15 starts (per Sports Illustrated). Many came from forcing throws late in the down—often because the scheme asked for vertical concepts against two‑high safety looks. Without quick outlet routes or a consistent run threat, Smith felt he needed to make something happen.
Lack of creative run game: Kelly’s system relied on zone read concepts but rarely used motion to influence linebackers. Running back George Jeanty averaged just 3.6 yards per carry and the Raiders’ EPA/rush ranked dead last. Defenses stayed in nickel and dime packages, increasing the difficulty of throwing lanes.
Underutilization of playmakers: Tight end Brock Bowers and rookie slot receiver Jack Bech flashed dynamic ability, yet there were stretches (e.g., the entire second half versus Denver) where Bowers did not receive a target. The passing concept progression often put Bowers as the third read, making it easy for defenses to bracket him.
In summary, a porous offensive line, a scheme lacking quick‑game answers and play‑action, and Smith’s own aggression led to the league’s worst offensive production.
Enter Fernando Mendoza: résumé and statistical profile
The Raiders drafted Fernando Mendoza because he offers the traits the previous quarterbacks lacked: elite processing, accuracy, ball security and leadership. Mendoza stands around 6‑foot‑4 to 6‑foot‑5 and 225 pounds—measurements vary by source—and led Indiana to a 16–0 national championship season in 2025, capturing the Heisman Trophy. The NFL’s post‑draft analysis notes his fearless mentality, touch and anticipation on all route types. His raw statistics tell a story of efficiency and explosiveness.
Table 2 – Fernando Mendoza’s 2025 college stats
Category | Total | Per‑Game/Rate |
|---|---|---|
Completions | 273 | 17.1 per game |
Attempts | 379 | 23.7 per game |
Completion % | 72.0 % | — |
Passing yards | 3,535 | 220.9 ypg |
Yards/attempt | 9.3 | — |
Touchdowns | 41 | 2.6 per game |
Interceptions | 6 | 0.38 per game |
Passer rating | 182.9 | — |
Rushing attempts | 90 | 5.6 per game |
Rushing yards | 276 | 3.1 ypc |
Rushing TD | 7 | — |
Sources: StatMuse and CFBStats
Mendoza’s completion rate (72.0 %) and yards per attempt (9.3) rank near the top of modern college quarterbacks. He threw a touchdown on 10.8 % of his passes and an interception on just 1.6 %, illustrating elite risk management. He also added seven rushing scores on designed keepers and scrambles, showing he can be an effective athlete.
PFF scouting evaluation
Pro Football Focus graded Mendoza as a high‑end starter (8.07/10) and offered detailed category scores. Their scouting report highlights why he fits a modern NFL scheme:
Trait | PFF Grade | Notes |
|---|---|---|
Processing/Decision‑making | 8.5/10 | Immediately identifies leverage and throws with no hesitation, ranking second in PFF passing grade on throws over the middle. |
Accuracy/Mechanics | 8.5/10 | Superb ball placement, especially on back‑shoulder fades and throws into zone windows; 69 % overall accuracy (2nd among draft‑eligible QBs) and 16.3 % uncatchable rate (2nd best). |
Pocket presence | 7/10 | Willing to stand in and deliver under pressure (70.6 PFF grade under pressure), but occasionally bails from clean pockets and was responsible for 24.8 % of his own pressures. |
Playmaking/Athleticism | 7.5/10 | Enough mobility to escape and gain yards; keeps eyes downfield when scrambling. |
Arm talent | 8.5/10 | Can make every throw; velocity to fit balls into tight windows; deep ball doesn’t die. |
PFF’s evaluation concludes that there are “few flaws” in Mendoza’s game and projects him as a long‑term quality starter. His strengths—anticipation, touch, quick processing and competitiveness—directly address the issues that plagued the Raiders.
How Mendoza changes the Raiders offense
Ball security and accuracy
Sports Illustrated notes that Gardner Minshew and Geno Smith combined for 27 interceptions over the last two seasons, whereas Mendoza threw only six picks in 379 attempts. His interception rate is nearly one‑third of Las Vegas’ previous starters. NFL.com also highlights that since 2024 Mendoza has thrown 39 red‑zone touchdowns without an interception, a remarkable streak that should translate to better scoring efficiency. Limiting turnovers should increase the offense’s possession count and scoring opportunities. His 72 % completion rate (third‑highest in the FBS in 2025) will also boost early‑down efficiency and keep the offense on schedule.
Processing and quick decisions
Klint Kubiak’s preferred system is a wide‑zone/bootleg West Coast offense—emphasizing outside zone runs, play‑action, movement throws and half‑field reads. Mendoza thrived on timing concepts at Indiana. PFF highlighted his ability to anticipate windows and throw before receivers break. That trait translates directly to quick‑game concepts and layered play‑action passes that attack the intermediate area—the route family where Bowers and slot receiver Jalen Nailor work best.
Fit with skill players
Brock Bowers (TE): A mismatch against linebackers and safeties, Bowers wins on seam routes, crossers and screens. Mendoza’s ball placement allows him to throw Bowers open, particularly on back‑shoulder fades. Expect heavy doses of two‑tight end formations with Bowers and free‑agent acquisition Connor Heyward, forcing base defense and creating match‑ups.
Wide receivers: The Raiders added Jalen Nailor (via trade) to complement Tre Tucker. Nailor’s ability to separate quickly meshes with Mendoza’s quick release. Deep threat Tre Tucker stretches safeties, creating space underneath.
Running game: Outside‑zone concepts with second‑year back George Jeanty and free‑agent signing Zack Moss will set up bootlegs. Mendoza’s athleticism (7.5/10 PFF grade) allows him to keep on zone reads and naked boots, putting stress on the backside end and giving him run/pass options.
Leadership and competitiveness
Mendoza’s competitive nature was on display during the national title game when he tucked the ball on a critical fourth down and dove for the pylon. Coaches rave about his preparation and maturity. Having a young leader who willingly absorbs hits and lays it on the line should resonate in a locker room that lacked an alpha presence at quarterback since Derek Carr.
General manager John Spytek echoed this sentiment after drafting him. Spytek praised Mendoza as “a great person” who is “about the right things” and “accountable to the whole organization,” adding that being the first overall pick will only make him work harder. NFL.com’s draft report highlighted his fearlessness, ability to “feather the ball into tight windows” and unflappable poise under pressure. These traits—accountability, touch and calm—underscore why the Raiders trust him to eventually lead the franchise.
Why Kirk Cousins is more than a mentor
ESPN reported that Cousins’ contract guarantees $20 million in 2026 with a team option that could extend the deal into $172 million over five years. The Raiders clearly view Cousins as more than a clipboard holder. Klint Kubiak bluntly stated that “ideally, you don’t want [Mendoza] to start day one”. Cousins will almost certainly open the season as the starter. Here’s why that makes sense:
System familiarity: Cousins played for Kubiak in Minnesota (2019–21), posting 94 touchdowns against 26 interceptions and a 67.6 % completion rate during that span. He knows the nomenclature, footwork and progressions of the scheme, which accelerates the offensive installation for the rest of the roster.
Learning environment: Cousins is known for meticulous film study and routine. Mendoza can observe how a veteran prepares, handles protections and communicates with receivers. Kubiak referenced Aaron Rodgers sitting for three years, noting the value of continuity. While Mendoza won’t wait that long, a few months behind Cousins could sharpen his pre‑snap processes.
Competitive baseline: Cousins’ 2025 season in Atlanta was modest (61.7 % completion, 1,721 yards, 10 TD and 5 INT), but he still grades as a middle‑tier starter. With the league’s worst offense last year, fielding an average veteran stabilizes the unit and prevents the rookie from being shell‑shocked behind a still‑developing line.
When does Mendoza take over?
Expect Cousins to open the year as QB1. However, several scenarios could accelerate Mendoza’s debut:
Poor start: If the Raiders begin 2–4 or worse, pressure will mount to inject life into the offense. Ownership and fans will call for Mendoza if the veteran struggles with turnovers or fails to create explosive plays.
Injury: Cousins turns 38 during the season and is coming off multiple injuries (Achilles in 2023, elbow in 2024). Any significant injury opens the door.
Training camp/preseason dominance: Should Mendoza show mastery of protections and consistently carve up the defense in August, coaches may decide he’s ready sooner. The goal is to avoid stunting his development with repeated sacks; if the offensive line looks improved and he’s processing quickly, Week 8 or earlier is realistic.
Package role: Even if Cousins starts, Kubiak could sprinkle Mendoza into short‑yardage and red‑zone packages, exploiting his mobility and 6‑foot‑5 frame on zone reads and bootlegs. This introduces him to live bullets without handing him the full playbook.
Fixing the offense around Mendoza
Selecting a franchise quarterback is only the first step. To maximize Mendoza (or Cousins), general manager John Spytek must attack the roster and scheme deficiencies:
Personnel upgrades
Offensive line – Invest heavily. Re-sign right tackle Jermaine Eluemunor and use draft capital on a plug‑and‑play left tackle. Sign a veteran center who excels in outside zone; the Raiders have been linked to free agent Graham Glasgow. Upgrading guard play reduces the league‑worst sack rate.
Running back committee – Add a back with home‑run speed to complement Jeanty and Moss. Explosive runs raise EPA and keep linebackers honest.
Depth at receiver – Beyond Tucker and Nailor, the Raiders need a reliable third target. A mid‑round rookie with route‑running savvy (similar to former Vikings WR Adam Thielen) would thrive in Kubiak’s system.
Defensive improvements – While outside this article’s scope, improving the defense reduces negative game scripts. Playing from behind forced Geno Smith into high‑volume passing and garbage‑time stats. A top‑half defense allows a run‑heavy game script that suits both Cousins and Mendoza.
Scheme adjustments
Embrace wide‑zone/play‑action – Kubiak’s offenses in Minnesota ranked among the league leaders in play‑action usage. Bootlegs off outside‑zone runs slow pass rushers and define reads. Mendoza’s PFF grades under pressure (70.6) and on intermediate throws suggest he will excel when moved off the spot.
Add motion and condensed splits – Using pre‑snap motion, orbit motions and bunch formations forces defenses to declare coverage and creates free releases for Bowers and Nailor. It also widens running lanes for Jeanty.
RPO and quick game – Incorporating run‑pass options and glance routes offers built‑in answers versus loaded boxes. Mendoza’s quick processing (8.5/10) and accurate slants make this a natural fit.
Spread to run – On early downs, detach Bowers and Tucker wide to lighten boxes. This creates five‑man boxes and easier double teams for the line. Mix in inside zone and duo to diversify the run game.
Third‑down package – Use heavier personnel (13) with Bowers, Heyward and blocking tight end Austin Hooper to protect and create mismatches on play‑action seams. Mendoza’s back‑shoulder accuracy is a weapon on third‑and‑short.
Play design improvements
Middle‑field attacks: Many of Mendoza’s best college throws came over the middle. Kubiak should call more dig/angle concepts, Y‑cross and dagger to exploit his anticipatory throwing.
Back‑shoulder game: Indiana rode back‑shoulder fades in high‑leverage situations. With Tucker and Bowers, the Raiders can replicate this, turning 50‑50 balls into 70‑30 completions.
Zone‑read and QB keepers: Periodically call zone‑read or split‑zone keepers to exploit Mendoza’s mobility. This slows backside pursuit and adds a layer defenses must prepare for.
Future outlook and timeline
With a revamped offensive line, a veteran mentor and a creative scheme, the Raiders have the blueprint to crawl out of the basement. In 2026 the unit should target a climb from 32nd to mid‑20s in EPA/play, with Cousins managing the offense early. If Mendoza starts by mid‑season, expect growing pains—occasional sacks due to pocket feel issues and adaptation to NFL speed. However, his decision‑making and accuracy give him a higher floor than any Raiders rookie since Kenny Stabler.
By 2027 the Raiders hope to field a top‑15 offense built on the wide‑zone foundation and anchored by a QB‑TE duo (Mendoza and Bowers) reminiscent of what Sean McVay built with Jared Goff and Cooper Kupp. Patience will be required, but the process signals a commitment to building around a young quarterback rather than patch‑working veterans.
Frequently asked questions
Why draft Mendoza instead of another position?
Quarterbacks with Mendoza’s blend of size, processing, accuracy and ball security rarely come along. His Heisman‑winning campaign and high PFF grade (91.6, second among draft‑eligible QBs) make him a franchise cornerstone. No other player impacts the game as much.
Is Kirk Cousins guaranteed to start all season?
No. While Kubiak prefers sitting rookies, performance dictates decisions. A poor start or injury could push Mendoza into the lineup by mid‑season. Cousins’ contract gives the Raiders flexibility to move on after 2026.
How will the offense look different under Kubiak?
Expect more outside‑zone runs, heavy play‑action, motion and bootlegs. The Raiders will prioritize efficiency, quick reads and yards after catch, rather than the vertical, slow‑developing concepts seen in 2025.
What is a realistic expectation for Mendoza’s rookie season?
If he starts six to eight games, 15–18 touchdown passes with under 10 interceptions and about 300 rushing yards would constitute a successful foundation. The goal is progression, not immediate Pro Bowl numbers.
When will the Raiders be legitimate contenders?
With a healthy roster and continued defensive improvement, they could vie for a wild‑card spot as early as 2027. The timeline hinges on the offensive line’s development and Mendoza’s transition.
Final thought
By pairing a polished yet still ascending rookie with a veteran who knows the system, the Raiders have built a sensible bridge to the future. Their success hinges on repairing the trenches, designing a quarterback‑friendly scheme and resisting the urge to rush Mendoza into a bad situation. If executed properly, the Fernando Mendoza era could finally deliver the offensive identity Raider Nation has long craved.
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