Patrick Mahomes is the wrong quarterback to blitz. Next Gen Stats show that he has a higher career passer rating (116.5) when defenses send five or more pass rushers than when they rush four or fewer (109.0). In other words, obvious pressure turbo‑charges Kansas City’s offense. Yet there is a way to stress Mahomes without selling out: using a 3‑4 defense to create “creepers” (also known as replacement pressures) that simulate the look of a heavy blitz but actually rush only four. This piece examines why the Raiders have struggled against the Chiefs, how a 3‑4 structure can attack Mahomes, and what personnel and schematic tweaks Las Vegas needs for 2026.
Why blitzing Mahomes backfires
Mahomes might be the league’s most blitz‑resistant quarterback. Across his first eight seasons he leads the NFL in expected points added (EPA) per play (+0.26) and success rate (53 %) once garbage time is removed. Offensive coordinator Andy Reid designs quick answers to pressure, and Mahomes punishes defenses who abandon coverage by hitting Travis Kelce on hot routes or buying time with his feet. During the 2025 regular season he produced league‑leading passing EPA when defenses didn’t blitz (reportedly +100.1 EPA) but ranked 22nd when they brought extra rushers, evidence that the Chiefs often expect and defeat heat.
Table 1 – Mahomes vs blitz / no‑blitz (career numbers)
Situation | Passer rating | EPA/play* | Success rate* |
|---|---|---|---|
5+ rushers (blitz) | 116.5 | Higher than league average | >50 % |
≤4 rushers (standard) | 109.0 | +0.26 (three‑year average) | 53 % |
*EPA/play and success rate values are multi‑season averages from the Underdog Network rankings (garbage time removed). They illustrate Mahomes’ efficiency independent of box‑score stats.
These numbers mean blitzing simply trades coverage for a marginal increase in pressure. Mahomes’ quick processing and escape ability turn those situations into explosive plays. To beat him, a defense needs to create pressure he doesn’t see coming while still keeping seven in coverage – exactly what a 3‑4 defense is built to do.
How a 3‑4 structure creates disguised pressure
A classic 3‑4 alignment uses three down linemen and four linebackers, two of whom line up on the edge. Because there are only three hands in the dirt, offenses can’t easily identify which four defenders will rush. This ambiguity is fertile ground for creeper pressures, where a linebacker or safety blitzes while a defensive lineman drops into coverage. The defense still rushes four, but the composition of the rush changes post‑snap. Offenses see pressure from unusual angles and must adjust their protection rules on the fly.
Key elements of a 3‑4 creeper package:
Hybrid outside linebackers: In a 3‑4, edge players must rush like defensive ends and drop like linebackers. They can align wide to threaten tackles or stand up over the slot to discourage bubble screens. Their ability to show blitz then drop disrupts Mahomes’ pre‑snap reads.
Interior defensive linemen who can two‑gap: A nose tackle who eats double‑teams allows the defense to play with lighter boxes and still control the interior. When the center and guard are engaged, a late‑blitzing linebacker has a free lane up the A‑gap.
Delayed blitzes from depth: Creepers often involve safeties or off‑ball linebackers timing their rush late. Because Mahomes is adept at escaping early pressure, blitzing from depth targets his scramble lanes rather than the initial launch point. The defender is hidden in coverage until the ball is snapped.
Coverage integrity: Simulated pressures keep seven players in coverage. That allows bracket techniques on Kelce and inside‑out leverage on Kansas City’s speedy receivers.
The following diagram (abstracted) illustrates how a 3‑4 defense can threaten six blitzers pre‑snap but only rush four by dropping a lineman and bringing a linebacker from depth. The offense must account for all six possible rushers, leaving protection rules stressed.
Chiefs offensive tendencies that a 3‑4 can exploit
Even with Mahomes’ brilliance, the 2025 Chiefs had weaknesses. Injuries and roster turnover at tackle forced them to slide protection towards Maxx Crosby whenever they faced the Raiders. Kansas City also leaned heavily on quick game concepts; their passing yards per game dropped to 232.2 (16th in the league) and points per game to 21.3 (21st). They still thrived in late‑down situations because defenses blitzed to stop them – precisely what Mahomes wants.
A 3‑4 can target those tendencies by simulating pressure from one side while dropping underneath quick routes on the other, forcing Mahomes to hold the ball. Late interior pressure collapses the pocket without committing five or six rushers.
Raiders’ defensive struggles vs the Chiefs
In 2025 the Raiders’ defense quietly improved from 2024 but remained inconsistent. Las Vegas allowed 25.4 points per game, ranking 25th in the NFL. Against Kansas City, the issues were magnified:
Lack of pressure: Without Maxx Crosby and Adam Butler in Week 7, the defensive line generated virtually no pressure and the Chiefs ran for 157 yards.
Linebackers exposed in coverage: Elandon Roberts and Devin White were targeted 11 times and allowed 10 receptions for 119 yards.
Secondary overwhelmed: Andy Reid “put the Raiders’ defensive backfield in a blender,” giving Mahomes “wide open receivers on nearly every down”. The Raiders dropped multiple potential interceptions and failed to capitalize on rare mistakes.
Table 2 – Raiders 2025 pass defense (team totals)
Games | Completions allowed | Attempts faced | Completion % | Yds/Att | Pass Yds/G | Pass TDs allowed | Interceptions | Opp QBR | Sacks |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
17 | 340 | 515 | 66.0 % | 6.4 | 195.0 | 20 | 19 | 81.5 | 64 |
Source: StatMuse 2025 season data for Las Vegas Raiders. The Raiders’ coverage yielded a respectable yards per attempt and interception total, but the 66 % completion rate indicates that opponents consistently found easy throws. Pressure often arrived too late to disrupt timing.
The combination of inconsistent rush and shaky coverage doomed the Raiders against a precision passing offense like Kansas City. To harness the benefits of a 3‑4, Las Vegas must upgrade personnel and refine scheme.
How a retooled 3‑4 can help the Raiders in 2026
Anchor the interior with a true nose tackle. The current defensive line rotated undersized tackles; adding a 330‑pound nose who can command double‑teams will free linebackers to insert as creeper blitzers. A later‑round draft prospect or mid‑tier free agent could fill this role without major cap strain.
Acquire hybrid outside linebackers. In 2025 the Raiders relied on defensive ends to play stand‑up roles, limiting flexibility. Signing or drafting players similar to Micah Parsons or Haason Reddick – college edge rushers with the athleticism to drop in coverage – would enable a wider variety of simulated pressures. Pairing one of these hybrid rushers opposite Crosby would make it difficult for offenses to slide protection.
Upgrade cornerback depth. The Raiders’ corners struggled to stay in phase on deep crossers and option routes. Investing in long, physical press corners allows the defense to play man coverage behind creepers, forcing Mahomes to hold the ball. Drafting a corner early in 2026 or targeting a veteran like L’Jarius Sneed (should he hit free agency) would address this need.
Coaching emphasis on disguise and late rotation. Patrick Graham (or his successor) should lean into Vic Fangio‑style match coverages, where safeties show two‑high pre‑snap before rotating late. Combining this with creeper pressures forces Mahomes to re‑set his read after the snap rather than attacking known spots.
Situational calls to close scramble lanes. When Mahomes escapes, he converts third downs with his legs. Delayed blitzes from linebackers should be timed to meet him at his escape angle, while defensive ends must maintain outside leverage. Drills that teach rush integrity and “cage” techniques are as important as scheming pressures.
Table 3 – Points allowed and offensive support
Team metric (2025 Raiders) | Value | League rank |
|---|---|---|
Points per game (offense) | 14.2 | 32nd |
Opponent points per game (defense) | 25.4 | 25th |
Pass yards allowed per game | 195.0 | 10th (approx) |
Sacks | 64 | Top‑5 |
These numbers highlight the complementary football challenge Las Vegas faces. The defense was asked to carry an offense that ranked dead last in scoring. While the pass defense ranking looks respectable, the unit’s inability to generate timely stops against elite offenses remains an issue.
Future outlook
Switching fully to a 3‑4 is not a magic bullet. It requires smart roster construction, player development and disciplined coaching. However, the structural advantage of a 3‑4 with creepers aligns well with attacking Mahomes: rush four from unexpected angles, occupy blockers inside, and keep seven in coverage. As Kansas City’s offense evolves toward quick passes and intermediate shots, the ability to create confusion without sacrificing coverage becomes paramount. The Raiders’ brass should prioritize versatile defenders in the 2026 draft and free agency and commit to a scheme built on disguise and unpredictability.
FAQ
What is a “creeper” pressure? A creeper (or replacement pressure) is a simulated four‑man rush where a second‑level defender (linebacker or safety) blitzes and a defensive lineman drops into coverage. It looks like a blitz because a linebacker shows at the line, but the defense still rushes only four.
Why not simply blitz Mahomes? Mahomes’ passer rating against blitzes is higher than his rating versus standard rushes. Blitzing vacates coverage zones and creates one‑on‑one match‑ups he consistently exploits. Simulated pressure keeps coverage intact while still stressing protection.
How would the Raiders align in a 3‑4 against the Chiefs? Expect three down linemen (including a hefty nose tackle), two hybrid outside linebackers aligned wide, and two off‑ball linebackers stacked behind the line. Safeties show two‑high but rotate late. On passing downs, one defensive end may drop while a linebacker or slot defender blitzes, creating the appearance of a six‑man pressure but sending only four.
By blending film study, advanced metrics and roster strategy, the Raiders can evolve into a defense that frustrates Patrick Mahomes without resorting to risky all‑out blitzes. The smartest way to beat Mahomes isn’t pressure; it’s pressure he doesn’t see coming.